Krark, the Thumbless | Storm-Kiln Artist | Irenicus's Vile Duplication

Chance of success calculator

Will Krark's coin flips go infinite?

Each Krark flips a coin whenever you cast Irenicus's Vile Duplication or Quantum Misalignment. Every win copies the spell for one more Krark, and Storm-Kiln Artist makes a Treasure for the cast and for each copy. A copy of a spell can copy Storm-Kiln Artist instead, for the mana: where that gives the better chance, the odds aim a cast's first copies at it and say how many, the spell itself after them. Broadly, that is while the mana left after the cast falls short of the next cast or two, and for a copy won with flips still to come; with mana to spare, or a win on the last flip, a Krark is the better copy. A single loss returns the spell to your hand to cast again, but win every flip and it resolves for one more Krark and is used up. The loop stops once both spells are, or once you can't pay for the next cast. The odds cast whichever spell gives the better chance each time, and with Krark's Thumb take every win unless losing the flip, to keep the spell, gives a better one. With the Thumb and no way left to go infinite, they lose the flip as well: such a combo counts as running out of mana, a copying spell still in hand, rather than as using it up. Where it stops, how many copies of Krark it has made by then, how many casts and how much mana are given as mean ± deviation.